Forecast of Azerbaijan’s Natural Gas Production and Export Potential: In the Context of the Southern Gas Corridor (2010–2030)

Abstract

This article examines Azerbaijan’s natural gas production, domestic consumption, and export potential, with particular emphasis on the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). The study analyzes production dynamics, domestic demand indicators, operational capacities, and planned infrastructure projects based on national and international data sources. In addition, comparative analysis and forecasting approaches are applied to evaluate short- and medium-term prospects for gas production and export capacity. The results indicate that the substantial hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian region, particularly offshore fields, have the potential to significantly increase Azerbaijan’s gas exports to Europe in the context of the SGC expansion. At the same time, meeting the growing domestic demand contributes to maintaining national energy security, while investments in pipeline systems, processing facilities, and infrastructure projects enhance the reliability and efficiency of the export route. It is concluded that Azerbaijan will continue to play an important and strategic role in Europe’s energy security in the medium and long term, with the SGC serving as a key platform for expanding gas exports to international markets.