Modeling of Ballistic Missile Trajectories and Impact Point Prediction

Abstract

This article provides a detailed analysis of the aerodynamic and trajectory characteristics of glide-maneuvering missiles. Glide-maneuvering missiles are capable of altering their trajectory in the horizontal direction during the terminal phase of ballistic flight through the use of aerodynamic lift, which significantly complicates their prediction by missile defense systems. The principles of aerodynamic lift and drag generation are examined, and the distinction between the missile’s angle of attack and the difference between its longitudinal axis and the actual velocity vector is explained. The propulsion, free-flight, and terminal phases of missile flight are described, along with the effects of roll and rotation angles on the trajectory. The article also discusses the influence of shock waves and plasma sheaths formed around the missile under hypersonic conditions (Mach 5 and above) on aerodynamic behavior and communication processes. Furthermore, a parameter estimation model based on the Earth ellipsoid is proposed for predicting the impact point of glide-maneuvering missiles, and a root mean square error method is presented for evaluating prediction accuracy. The results demonstrate that accurate calculation of missile trajectories and impact points requires consideration of aerodynamic forces, rotational and maneuver parameters, as well as the physical characteristics of hypersonic flight. The proposed approaches enable realistic modeling of glide-maneuvering and hypersonic missile flight and contribute to the optimization of detection by defense systems.