Forecasting Cotton Productivity in the Mil-Mugan Economic Region using Climate Variables and Remote Sensing Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52171/herald.342Keywords:
cotton, productivity, satellite image, climate data, regression modelAbstract
Satellite imagery is considered as one of the most valuable and functional data sources for evaluating and forecasting production in agricultural systems. This study aims to forecast productivity in cotton fields within the Mil-Mugan economic region by incorporating vegetation indices and climatic variables. NDVI indicators were derived from Sentinel-2 data, temperature (T) was obtained from ERA5-Land data, and precipitation (R) was collected from the CHIRPS database. The data were analyzed using Google Earth Engine, ArcGIS Pro, and Python environments, consolidating them into an integrated temporal-spatial dimension. The correlation and regression analysis assessed the link among NDVI, temperature, precipitation, and productivity, leading to the development of a multivariate model. The findings derived from the model indicate that NDVI is the primary factor influencing productivity. The model developed for one region was implemented in the other three locations, and the correlation between the actual and predicted indicators was assessed using R² and RMSE metrics. The results indicate that the model's forecast accuracy fluctuates within the 90% range, considered appropriate for predicting regional cotton yield. The study's findings are significant for enhancing operational monitoring and planning of agrotechnical decisions with satellite data.
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